Primary Primer

2 min read

Looking forward to the ultimate Democrat decision.

Delegates won so far…

Obama – 1223 Clinton – 1198

There are two types of delegates: some are VIPs designated by the party (“Super Delegates”) and the rest are available by winning votes in the primary elections (“Pledged Delegates”). A candidate needs 2025 delegates for a clear win. In the absence of a conclusive decision by August 25, the nominee will be determined at a brokered convention.

As shown above, Clinton and Obama are neck and neck. The numbers above included the votes of super-delegates who have already pledged their support.

The table below shows the remaining primary dates and delegates available.

Pledged Super Total States
 February 19, 2008 94 27 121  Wisconsin, Hawaii
 March 4, 2008 370 74 444  Vermont , Texas, Rhode Island, Ohio
 March 8, 2008 12 6 18  Wyoming
 March 11, 2008 33 7 40  Mississippi
 April 22, 2008 158 30 188  Pennsylvania
 May 3, 2008 4 5 9  Guam
 May 6, 2008 187 31 218  North Carolina, Indiana
 May 13, 2008 28 11 39  West Virginia
 May 20, 2008 103 22 125  Oregon, Kentucky
 June 3, 2008 31 16 47  South Dakota, Montana
 June 7, 2008 55 8 63  Puerto Rico
 Unassigned   4 4  
1075 241 1316  

Although Obama seems to have momentum of late (he’s won the last 8 states up for grabs), Clinton has some strongholds coming up. And with the vote split almost down the middle, it is easy to see that the decision could come down to the penalty shootout.

This does give Republicans an edge as it means they have more time to put together their presidential campaign (the election is in November and McCain has effectively won his party’s nomination already). However most analysts feel there is nothing the republicans can do to win, no matter what amount of time they have.

But one theory bucks that view, known as “ABC.” Some feel that there are a large number of voters, including Democrats, who will vote for “Anyone But Clinton.” No doubt the Republicans are counting on this and encouraging their members to sign up as Democrats to support Hillary through the primary process only to switch allegiance and vote Republican in a McCain:Clinton bake-off.

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