Looking forward to the ultimate Democrat decision.
Delegates won so far…
|Obama – 1223||Clinton – 1198|
There are two types of delegates: some are VIPs designated by the party (“Super Delegates”) and the rest are available by winning votes in the primary elections (“Pledged Delegates”). A candidate needs 2025 delegates for a clear win. In the absence of a conclusive decision by August 25, the nominee will be determined at a brokered convention.
As shown above, Clinton and Obama are neck and neck. The numbers above included the votes of super-delegates who have already pledged their support.
The table below shows the remaining primary dates and delegates available.
|February 19, 2008||94||27||121||Wisconsin, Hawaii|
|March 4, 2008||370||74||444||Vermont , Texas, Rhode Island, Ohio|
|March 8, 2008||12||6||18||Wyoming|
|March 11, 2008||33||7||40||Mississippi|
|April 22, 2008||158||30||188||Pennsylvania|
|May 3, 2008||4||5||9||Guam|
|May 6, 2008||187||31||218||North Carolina, Indiana|
|May 13, 2008||28||11||39||West Virginia|
|May 20, 2008||103||22||125||Oregon, Kentucky|
|June 3, 2008||31||16||47||South Dakota, Montana|
|June 7, 2008||55||8||63||Puerto Rico|
Although Obama seems to have momentum of late (he’s won the last 8 states up for grabs), Clinton has some strongholds coming up. And with the vote split almost down the middle, it is easy to see that the decision could come down to the penalty shootout.
This does give Republicans an edge as it means they have more time to put together their presidential campaign (the election is in November and McCain has effectively won his party’s nomination already). However most analysts feel there is nothing the republicans can do to win, no matter what amount of time they have.
But one theory bucks that view, known as “ABC.” Some feel that there are a large number of voters, including Democrats, who will vote for “Anyone But Clinton.” No doubt the Republicans are counting on this and encouraging their members to sign up as Democrats to support Hillary through the primary process only to switch allegiance and vote Republican in a McCain:Clinton bake-off.